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Colby Parkinson

Colby Parkinson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Colby Parkinson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+630/-1200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +660 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +630.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in football (64.3% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Los Angeles Rams.
  • The predictive model expects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 140.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically cause better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.
  • Colby Parkinson's possession skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 65.2% to 89.1%.
  • This year, the poor Saints pass defense has given up a monstrous 80.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 9th-biggest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Rams, who are a huge favorite by 14 points.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 28.6 pass attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.
  • While Colby Parkinson has earned 10.3% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a less important option in Los Angeles's pass game near the end zone in this contest at 3.9%.
  • Colby Parkinson has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (9.0 per game) than he did last season (19.0 per game).
  • Colby Parkinson's 8.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 19.6.

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