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Colby Parkinson

Colby Parkinson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
Colby Parkinson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+184/-220).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -196 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -220.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league (65.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Rams.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Colby Parkinson has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 23.2% this year, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
  • Colby Parkinson's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 65.2% to 78.6%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Rams are a huge 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
  • As it relates to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Rams profiles as the worst in the NFL this year.
  • This year, the imposing Falcons defense has yielded a measly 69.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 4th-lowest rate in football.
  • This year, the formidable Atlanta Falcons defense has given up a mere 0.13 passing TDs per game to opposing TEs: the best rate in the NFL.

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