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Colby Parkinson

Colby Parkinson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Colby Parkinson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+330/-460).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +400 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +330.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 4th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (64.3% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Rams.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are projected by the projection model to run 65.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-most on the slate this week.
  • The weather report calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Colby Parkinson has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 15.7% this year, which places him in the 79th percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • Colby Parkinson's sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 65.2% to 89.7%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 6.5-point advantage, the Rams are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their usual game plan.
  • Colby Parkinson has accrued far fewer air yards this year (7.0 per game) than he did last year (19.0 per game).
  • Colby Parkinson's 11.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 19.6.
  • As it relates to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Rams grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • This year, the imposing Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has yielded a paltry 67.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 9th-lowest rate in the NFL.

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