Colby Parkinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Colby Parkinson

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Colby Parkinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-115/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 9th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (62.9% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Seahawks.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower run volume.
Colby Parkinson is positioned as one of the most effective pass-catchers in the NFL among TEs, averaging a fantastic 8.72 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 89th percentile.
Colby Parkinson checks in as one of the top TEs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging an outstanding 6.32 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 86th percentile.
The Arizona Cardinals safeties profile as the 8th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Seahawks, who are a heavy favorite by 8.5 points.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see just 127.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.
Colby Parkinson's 53.7% Snap% this year marks a an impressive boost in his offensive volume over last year's 40.0% mark.
Colby Parkinson's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 78.9% to 74.3%.
This year, the strong Cardinals defense has conceded a feeble 36.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.