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Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 7

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+316/-576).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -554 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -576.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has rushed for 0.33 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the league among RBs (79th percentile).
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have utilized some form of misdirection on 67.9% of their plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-least run-centric team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 35.7% red zone run rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects Clyde Edwards-Helaire to be a much smaller piece of his team's run game near the goal line this week (13.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (30.8% in games he has played).
  • The San Francisco 49ers safeties profile as the best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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