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Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 6

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+278/-474).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -472 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -474.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire has rushed for 0.40 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the NFL among running backs (86th percentile).

The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Kansas City Chiefs have incorporated some form of misdirection on 67.9% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-least run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 35.9% red zone run rate.

The Buffalo Bills defensive ends profile as the 5th-best DE corps in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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