Clyde Edwards-Helaire Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Clyde Edwards-Helaire

NFL · Player Props

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+116/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This year, the poor Patriots pass defense has yielded a staggering 89.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the highest rate in the NFL.
The Patriots safeties grade out as the 9th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been less involved as a potential target this season (15.1% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (26.9%).
Clyde Edwards-Helaire's 0.7 adjusted receptions per game this season signifies a meaningful decrease in his receiving talent over last season's 1.7 rate.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 75.7% to 67.0%.

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