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C.J. Stroud

C.J. Stroud TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

Houston Texans vs Arizona Cardinals

 
 
 
C.J. Stroud TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-175/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -165 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -175.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (62.4% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Houston Texans.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to run the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
  • The 3rd-most plays in football have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 61.3 per game on average).
  • The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.
  • The leading projections forecast C.J. Stroud to throw 36.1 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Texans being a heavy 10-point favorite this week.
  • The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • This year, the stout Cardinals defense has given up a measly 68.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 10th-smallest rate in football.

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