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C.J. Stroud TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-108/-120).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +106 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -108.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Texans have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.In tallying a monstrous 34.3 pass attempts per game this year, C.J. Stroud ranks among the top quarterbacks in the league (75th percentile) by this measure.As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Tennessee's unit has been very bad this year, ranking as the 5th-worst in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 8-point advantage, the Texans are a massive favorite in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their normal approach.Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to have only 127.5 plays on offense called: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Tennessee Titans, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.0 per game) this year.The Houston offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.With a lackluster 61.4% Adjusted Completion% (14th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud stands among the least on-target QBs in the NFL.
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