C.J. Stroud Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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NFL · Player Props

C.J. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans · Week 20, 2024

Updated Jan 18, 2025 7:11 PM EST

Analysis

C.J. Stroud Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to see 136.5 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually cause decreased passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher rush volume.
C.J. Stroud has run for quite a few more yards per game (15.0) this season than he did last season (10.0).
C.J. Stroud's 6.27 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season conveys a material gain in his rushing proficiency over last season's 4.43 rate.

Favors Under

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Texans are massive underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on throwing than their usual approach.
The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans as the least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 38.7% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
In this contest, C.J. Stroud is projected by the projection model to earn the 3rd-fewest carries out of all quarterbacks with 3.2.
The opposing side have rushed for the 5th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 101.0 per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
When it comes to the safeties' role in run defense, Kansas City's unit has been excellent this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the league.