C.J. Stroud Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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C.J. Stroud

NFL · Player Props

C.J. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

C.J. Stroud Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 132.2 plays on offense run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
The Houston Texans have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 60.5 plays per game.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 10th-least run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 40.4% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
The model projects C.J. Stroud to accrue 2.7 carries in this week's contest, on balance: the 9th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
When talking about blocking for rushers (and the importance it has on all ground game statistics), the O-line of the Houston Texans profiles as the worst in the league last year.
C.J. Stroud's ground effectiveness (3.81 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (14th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks).

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