C.J. Stroud Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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C.J. Stroud

NFL · Player Props

C.J. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

Completions

Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

C.J. Stroud Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 137.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 6th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Texans this year (a whopping 62.8 per game on average).
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
The leading projections forecast C.J. Stroud to throw 36.6 passes in this week's game, on average: the 6th-most among all QBs.

Favors Under

The Texans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
At the present time, the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the league (57.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Texans.
With a lackluster 60.3% Adjusted Completion% (12th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud rates among the least accurate passers in football.
This year, the fierce New Orleans Saints defense has given up a paltry 62.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-smallest rate in the NFL.
The Saints linebackers project as the 5th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

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