C.J. Stroud Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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C.J. Stroud

NFL · Player Props

C.J. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

Completions

Houston Texans vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

C.J. Stroud Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-137/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to have 132.0 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.
The Houston Texans have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In tallying a staggering 36.9 pass attempts per game this year, C.J. Stroud rates among the top QBs in the league (84th percentile) for this stat.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Texans profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Houston Texans offensive scheme to tilt 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik now calling the plays.
With a 5.5-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this game, implying more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.
Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.5% pass rate.
Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Cardinals, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 32.6 per game) this year.
C.J. Stroud rates as one of the least accurate quarterbacks in the league this year with a 61.8% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 21st percentile.

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