My Account Log Out
 
 
Christian Watson

Christian Watson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Christian Watson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+178/-230).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -220 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -230.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • While Christian Watson has received 8.6% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Green Bay's passing offense near the goal line in this contest at 15.7%.
  • Christian Watson has totaled far more air yards this year (104.0 per game) than he did last year (63.0 per game).
  • Christian Watson's 54.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 38.5.
  • Christian Watson's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 59.9% to 65.2%.
  • Christian Watson grades out in the 98th percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an excellent 0.62 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 51.1% rate of running the ball in the red zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 10th-most run-centric offense in the league in these cases has been the Packers.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Packers are projected by the model to run just 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
  • The Chicago defensive tackles project as the 4th-worst group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™