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Christian Watson

Christian Watson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Christian Watson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+194/-215).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -240 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -215.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Packers are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Packers to pass on 60.4% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
  • While Christian Watson has received 9.5% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Green Bay's pass game near the end zone in this contest at 19.2%.
  • After accumulating 63.0 air yards per game last year, Christian Watson has been rising this year, currently pacing 95.0 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 55.1% rate of running the ball in the red zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 5th-most run-oriented team in the NFL in these situations has been the Green Bay Packers.
  • The projections expect the Packers to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
  • This year, the imposing Detroit Lions defense has yielded a measly 66.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL.

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