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Christian Watson

Christian Watson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Christian Watson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+215/-240).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -240 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -240.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • While Christian Watson has received 11.1% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be much more involved in Green Bay's passing offense near the end zone in this game at 16.3%.
  • After averaging 63.0 air yards per game last season, Christian Watson has made big progress this season, now sitting at 100.0 per game.
  • Christian Watson's 47.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 38.5.
  • Christian Watson's possession skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 59.9% to 72.9%.
  • With an excellent rate of 0.50 per game through the air (93rd percentile), Christian Watson rates as one of the top receiving TD-scorers in the league when it comes to wideouts this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A rushing game script is implied by the Packers being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • The projections expect the Green Bay Packers to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • With a 53.7% rate of running the ball near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 9th-most run-centric offense in football under these circumstances has been the Packers.
  • At the present time, the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Packers.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Vikings defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.

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