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Christian Watson

Christian Watson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

New York Giants vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Christian Watson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-315).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -275 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -315.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Giants defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
  • While Christian Watson has been responsible for 0.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Green Bay's pass game near the end zone in this week's contest at 12.1%.
  • In regards to air yards, Christian Watson ranks in the towering 83rd percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, totaling an astounding 70.0 per game.
  • Christian Watson's 46.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 38.5.
  • The Packers O-line profiles as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all pass game statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Packers are heavily favored this week, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Packers to pass on 52.6% of their chances: the 5th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • The Green Bay Packers rank as the 6th-most run-focused team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 54.1% red zone run rate.
  • At the present time, the 5th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Packers.
  • The weather report calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

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