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Christian Watson

Christian Watson Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Green Bay Packers vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Christian Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Green Bay Packers may take to the air less in this contest (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup QB Malik Willis.
  • The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (39.5 per game) this year.
  • Christian Watson's 54.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 38.5.
  • Christian Watson's 3.4 adjusted receptions per game this season marks a substantial boost in his pass-catching skills over last season's 2.2 figure.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Green Bay Packers as the 3rd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Packers are projected by the predictive model to run just 59.6 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
  • When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Baltimore's safety corps has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the best in the NFL.

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