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Christian Watson

Christian Watson Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Christian Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-132/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +112 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -132.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Packers are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Packers to pass on 60.4% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
  • The predictive model expects Christian Watson to garner 7.0 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wideouts.
  • Christian Watson's 52.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 38.5.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Packers to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
  • This year, the strong Detroit Lions defense has conceded a meager 62.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 7th-best rate in the NFL.
  • When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Detroit's group of LBs has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 7th-best in the league.

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