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Christian Watson

Christian Watson Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Christian Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Christian Watson's 47.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 38.5.
  • Christian Watson's possession skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 59.9% to 72.9%.
  • The Minnesota Vikings safeties rank as the 7th-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A rushing game script is implied by the Packers being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • The projections expect the Green Bay Packers to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • At the present time, the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Packers.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Vikings defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.

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