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Christian Watson

Christian Watson Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

New York Giants vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Christian Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Giants defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
  • Christian Watson's 46.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 38.5.
  • The Packers O-line profiles as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all pass game statistics across the board.
  • Christian Watson's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 59.9% to 67.9%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Packers are heavily favored this week, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Packers to pass on 52.6% of their chances: the 5th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • At the present time, the 5th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Packers.
  • The weather report calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
  • When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New York's collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, ranking as the 8th-best in the league.

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