Christian Watson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Christian Watson

NFL · Player Props

Christian Watson

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-114/-114).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Packers are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 131.1 total plays called: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
After totaling 66.0 air yards per game last season, Christian Watson has posted big gains this season, now boasting 95.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point uptick in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Christian Watson has been more prominently utilized in his team's pass game.

Favors Under

The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 55.1 plays per game.
Christian Watson has compiled quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (33.0) this season than he did last season (43.0).
Christian Watson's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 65.3% to 43.9%.
Christian Watson's 5.9 adjusted yards per target this season reflects a remarkable regression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 9.3 mark.

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