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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Houston Texans vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Christian McCaffrey Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-125/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +114 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The San Francisco 49ers will be forced to utilize backup QB Mac Jones in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the 49ers are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on throwing than their normal game plan.
  • Our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers as the 7th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to call the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.0 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a whopping 63.7 per game on average).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Right now, the 9th-most run-heavy offense in football near the goal line (46.5% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the San Francisco 49ers.
  • The leading projections forecast Christian McCaffrey to be a much smaller part of his team's pass game near the end zone in this week's game (27.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (34.4% in games he has played).
  • As it relates to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the 49ers profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • With a remarkable rate of 0.38 touchdowns on the ground per game (81st percentile), Christian McCaffrey ranks among the leading rushing touchdown-scorers in football this year.
  • The Houston Texans pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (78%) to RBs since the start of last season (78.0%).

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