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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 7

San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Christian McCaffrey Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-164/+148).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -158 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -164.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The San Francisco 49ers will be forced to use backup QB Mac Jones in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to run the 7th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 64.2 plays per game.
  • Christian McCaffrey has put up a staggering 27.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile among RBs. (This may not seem too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
  • Christian McCaffrey's 45.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 33.9.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 10th-most run-centric team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 45.6% red zone run rate.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 26.8 pass attempts per game versus the Falcons defense this year: fewest in football.
  • While Christian McCaffrey has been responsible for 32.3% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be much less involved in San Francisco's offense near the end zone this week at 25.9%.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 10th-highest clip in the NFL versus the Falcons defense since the start of last season (72.3% Adjusted Completion%).

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