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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Christian McCaffrey Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-176/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -180 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -176.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 49ers may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Brock Purdy.

Opposing offenses have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.

While Christian McCaffrey has earned 81.2% of his offense's red zone run game usage in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much smaller part of San Francisco's running game near the goal line in this contest at 63.0%.

Christian McCaffrey has notched a monstrous 21.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

With a stellar rate of 0.25 per game through the air (96th percentile), Christian McCaffrey has been as one of the best receiving TD-scorers in football when it comes to running backs this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.

The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 9th-most run-focused offense in football near the end zone (45.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the San Francisco 49ers.

Right now, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the San Francisco 49ers.

The projections expect Christian McCaffrey to be a much smaller piece of his offense's passing game near the end zone this week (25.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (35.3% in games he has played).

More Christian McCaffrey Player Props

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