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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals

Christian McCaffrey Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-190/+152).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -170 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -190.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 49ers will be rolling with backup QB Mac Jones in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are predicted by the projections to run 65.3 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week.

Opposing offenses have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.

Christian McCaffrey has been a big part of his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 35.7% this year, which ranks him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.

In regards to air yards, Christian McCaffrey grades out in the lofty 100th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 18.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more impressive than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to pass on 55.5% of their plays: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

Right now, the 10th-most run-focused team in the league in the red zone (45.4% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the San Francisco 49ers.

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