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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 19

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Christian McCaffrey Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-123/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -123.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A passing game script is indicated by the 49ers being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • With an elite 26.5% Red Zone Target Rate (100th percentile) this year, Christian McCaffrey ranks among the RB receiving threats with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the NFL.
  • Christian McCaffrey has posted a staggering 21.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs average negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
  • Christian McCaffrey's 41.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 33.9.
  • Christian McCaffrey's 84.4% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a meaningful improvement in his receiving prowess over last season's 80.8% mark.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the 49ers to call the 4th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • Christian McCaffrey has run for 0.53 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the league when it comes to RBs (93rd percentile).
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the lowest level in the NFL vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (64.3% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Philadelphia Eagles linebackers rank as the best LB corps in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

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