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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Christian McCaffrey Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-170/+134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -186 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -170.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
  • With a high 25.6% Red Zone Target% (100th percentile) this year, Christian McCaffrey has been among the pass-game running backs with the highest volume near the goal line in football.
  • In regards to air yards, Christian McCaffrey grades out in the towering 100th percentile among running backs this year, totaling a remarkable 21.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).
  • Christian McCaffrey's 40.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 33.9.
  • Christian McCaffrey's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 80.9% to 84.3%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the San Francisco 49ers offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 28.78 seconds per snap.
  • The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
  • Christian McCaffrey has rushed for 0.56 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in football among running backs (94th percentile).
  • The Seattle Seahawks defense has conceded the 6th-fewest receiving touchdowns in the NFL to RBs: 0.12 per game this year.
  • The Seahawks safeties grade out as the 6th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

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