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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Christian McCaffrey Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-190/+160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -192 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -190.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The San Francisco 49ers have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 59.4 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • The Colts defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (38.9 per game) this year.
  • Christian McCaffrey has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 26.5% this year, which puts him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs.
  • Christian McCaffrey has accumulated a whopping 19.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This may not sound like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 4 points.
  • Our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 57.7% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 125.6 plays on offense run: the lowest number among all games this week.
  • Christian McCaffrey has rushed for 0.56 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the NFL when it comes to RBs (93rd percentile).
  • This year, the stout Colts defense has yielded a measly 78.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 7th-smallest rate in the league.

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