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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Cleveland Browns vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Christian McCaffrey Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-125/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have 133.1 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • When talking about air yards, Christian McCaffrey ranks in the towering 100th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a monstrous 21.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).
  • Christian McCaffrey's 43.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 33.9.
  • Christian McCaffrey's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 80.8% to 84.4%.
  • Christian McCaffrey grades out in the 99th percentile among running backs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a fantastic 0.38 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 49ers are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a running game script.
  • Our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 4th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 26-mph being predicted in this game) usually mean lessened passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and higher ground volume.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 28.9 per game) this year.
  • The leading projections forecast Christian McCaffrey to be a much smaller piece of his offense's pass attack near the goal line in this contest (21.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (30.0% in games he has played).

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