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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Christian McCaffrey Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-220/+196).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -210 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -220.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 131.1 total plays called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • The 6th-most plays in the league have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a colossal 59.9 per game on average).
  • The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
  • The Cardinals defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (36.2 per game) this year.
  • When it comes to air yards, Christian McCaffrey ranks in the lofty 100th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a whopping 23.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 3.5 points.
  • Our trusted projections expect Christian McCaffrey to be a much smaller part of his team's passing game near the end zone in this game (23.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (30.2% in games he has played).
  • The San Francisco O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • With an impressive ratio of 0.36 touchdowns on the ground per game (79th percentile), Christian McCaffrey rates among the best rushing TD-scorers in football this year.
  • Opposing squads have rushed for the 9th-most touchdowns in the league (1.00 per game) against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year.

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