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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
Christian McCaffrey Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-162/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +136 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The San Francisco 49ers may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling out backup quarterback Mac Jones.
  • A throwing game script is suggested by the 49ers being a -6-point underdog this week.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 61.4% of their plays: the 4th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • The projections expect the 49ers to call the most offensive plays on the slate this week with 68.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • The 3rd-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a staggering 60.6 per game on average).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the present time, the 10th-most run-heavy team in the NFL in the red zone (45.7% adjusted for context) according to the model is the 49ers.
  • The leading projections forecast Christian McCaffrey to be a much smaller part of his offense's pass game near the end zone in this game (25.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (31.0% in games he has played).
  • As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the 49ers grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year.
  • With an exceptional rate of 0.36 rushing touchdowns per game (85th percentile), Christian McCaffrey has been as one of the leading rushing TD-scorers in football this year.
  • This year, the tough Los Angeles Rams defense has conceded a puny 76.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 7th-best rate in the NFL.

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