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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 55.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 55.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 66.1 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • The 49ers have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 64.2 plays per game.
  • The predictive model expects Christian McCaffrey to notch 17.7 rush attempts in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 88th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Christian McCaffrey has been much more involved in his team's ground game this season (68.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (58.1%).
  • Christian McCaffrey has grinded out 42.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest figures in the league when it comes to running backs (82nd percentile).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 49ers may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be starting backup quarterback Mac Jones.
  • At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the 49ers are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their standard approach.
  • The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 38.9% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Christian McCaffrey's ground efficiency (3.22 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (12th percentile when it comes to running backs).
  • With a very bad rate of 2.33 yards after contact (10th percentile) this year, Christian McCaffrey rates as one of the easiest-to-tackle RBs in the league.

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