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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 13

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins

Christian McCaffrey Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+128/-176).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +149 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +128.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-most run-oriented offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 46.9% red zone run rate.

Christian McCaffrey has received 50.0% of his team's red zone carries this year, ranking him in the 85th percentile among running backs.

Christian McCaffrey has rushed for 0.36 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in the NFL among RBs (81st percentile).

Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-most touchdowns in the league (1.09 per game) against the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

The San Francisco 49ers have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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