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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-142/+111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -142.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 49ers may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Brock Purdy.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.
  • This week, Christian McCaffrey is forecasted by the projections to rank in the 100th percentile among RBs with 7.2 targets.
  • Christian McCaffrey ranks as one of the leading pass-game running backs this year, averaging an exceptional 6.2 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.
  • The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the San Francisco 49ers.
  • While Christian McCaffrey has accounted for 29.5% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of San Francisco's pass game in this week's contest at 23.0%.
  • As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Jacksonville's collection of LBs has been terrific since the start of last season, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

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