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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-140/+128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -162 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The San Francisco 49ers have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 59.4 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • The Colts defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (38.9 per game) this year.
  • Christian McCaffrey has been used more as a potential target this season (81.2% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (68.1%).
  • In this week's game, Christian McCaffrey is projected by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs with 7.2 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 4 points.
  • Our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 57.7% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 125.6 plays on offense run: the lowest number among all games this week.
  • This year, the stout Colts defense has yielded a measly 78.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 7th-smallest rate in the league.

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