Christian McCaffrey Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs New York Jets · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 9, 2024 11:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +125 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Christian McCaffrey has run a route on 80.9% of his offense's passing plays last year, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
The projections expect Christian McCaffrey to accrue 6.0 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey checks in as one of the leading RB receiving threats last year, averaging a remarkable 4.9 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 99th percentile.

Favors Under

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 5.5 points.
The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the fewest plays in the league last year, averaging a measly 53.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the New York Jets, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 30.7 per game) last year.

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