Christian McCaffrey Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 24, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-113/-113).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Our trusted projections expect Christian McCaffrey to accumulate 5.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Christian McCaffrey is positioned as one of the best RB receiving threats this year, averaging a stellar 3.8 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 93rd percentile.
Christian McCaffrey's 88.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this season indicates a a substantial boost in his receiving talent over last season's 85.1% mark.
Since the start of last season, the poor Vikings pass defense has been torched for a colossal 85.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the largest rate in the league.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the 49ers are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 62.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.2 plays per game.
Christian McCaffrey's 27.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 35.1.