Christian McCaffrey Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+126/-162).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 25.65 seconds per play.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to accumulate 6.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey's 32.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 100th percentile for RBs.
Christian McCaffrey has been among the top pass-game running backs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 5.3 receptions per game while ranking in the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Cleveland Browns linebackers project as the best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Cleveland Browns defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Carolina Panthers have incorporated play action on a lowly 23.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.