My Account Log Out

reorder

Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-115/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -124 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 49ers may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Brock Purdy.

Opposing offenses have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.

This week, Christian McCaffrey is forecasted by the projections to rank in the 100th percentile among RBs with 7.2 targets.

Christian McCaffrey has notched a monstrous 21.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

With an outstanding 55.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (100th percentile) this year, Christian McCaffrey places as one of the leading RB receiving threats in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.

The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the San Francisco 49ers.

While Christian McCaffrey has accounted for 29.5% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of San Francisco's pass game in this week's contest at 23.0%.

Christian McCaffrey's 7.2 adjusted yards per target this year indicates a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching ability over last year's 8.5 rate.

More Christian McCaffrey Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™