Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2025

Updated Sep 7, 2025 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-111/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With an impressive 68.1% Route% (100th percentile) last year, Christian McCaffrey rates as one of the RB receiving threats with the biggest workloads in the league.
In this week's game, Christian McCaffrey is projected by the projection model to place in the 98th percentile when it comes to RBs with 5.7 targets.
Christian McCaffrey ranks in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs last year with a staggering 8.5% of his team's air yards accumulated.
Christian McCaffrey rates as one of the most efficient receivers in the league when it comes to running backs, averaging a terrific 8.55 adjusted yards-per-target last year while checking in at the 85th percentile.

Favors Under

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the 49ers to pass on 54.0% of their chances: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to see the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL last year, totaling a lowly 55.7 plays per game.
The Seahawks pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.7%) to running backs last year (79.7%).
Last year, the tough Seahawks defense has given up the 10th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing running backs: a paltry 6.2 yards.

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