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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 32.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The San Francisco 49ers will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Brandon Allen this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the 49ers are underdogs this week, implying more of a reliance on passing than their usual game plan.

With an elite 79.6% Route Participation% (100th percentile) since the start of last season, Christian McCaffrey stands among the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in football.

The projections expect Christian McCaffrey to total 6.1 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 100th percentile among running backs.

As it relates to air yards, Christian McCaffrey grades out in the towering 100th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, totaling a massive 12.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect this game to have the 4th-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 127.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Christian McCaffrey's 4.20 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows a meaningful decrease in his effectiveness in the open field over last year's 6.7% figure.

This year, the tough Packers defense has surrendered a mere 81.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 7th-lowest rate in football.

The Green Bay Packers safeties rank as the 2nd-best safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

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