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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-127/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -127.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the Seahawks defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.

With an impressive 79.2% Route Participation% (100th percentile) since the start of last season, Christian McCaffrey ranks as one of the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in the NFL.

In this week's game, Christian McCaffrey is expected by the projections to land in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs with 6.5 targets.

Christian McCaffrey has totaled a monstrous 11.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not seem like very many, but most RBs average negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is implied by the 49ers being a 6-point favorite in this game.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to pass on 53.5% of their chances: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to have just 127.3 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.

The Seahawks pass defense has conceded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (73.4%) versus RBs this year (73.4%).

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Seattle's collection of safeties has been tremendous this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the league.

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