Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 10, 2024

Updated Nov 10, 2024 5:36 PM EST

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 4th-most in football.
Christian McCaffrey has run a route on 79.5% of his offense's passing plays last year, ranking him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
The leading projections forecast Christian McCaffrey to notch 5.4 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs.
When it comes to air yards, Christian McCaffrey grades out in the lofty 100th percentile among running backs last year, accumulating a staggering 10.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).
With an outstanding 37.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (100th percentile) last year, Christian McCaffrey ranks as one of the top pass-game RBs in the league.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
Our trusted projections expect the 49ers to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.4% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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