Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 4:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-125/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this contest, Christian McCaffrey is expected by the model to slot into the 96th percentile among RBs with 5.0 targets.
Christian McCaffrey has accumulated a staggering 6.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not seem like very many, but most RBs average negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Christian McCaffrey has posted a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (37.0) this season than he did last season (25.0).
Christian McCaffrey's pass-game efficiency has gotten better this season, totaling 8.00 adjusted yards-per-target vs a mere 7.09 rate last season.
Christian McCaffrey's skills in picking up extra yardage have gotten a boost this season, averaging 12.80 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 10.21 figure last season.

Favors Under

A running game script is implied by the 49ers being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 52.6% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers offense to be the most sluggish paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 31.72 seconds per snap.
Opposing offenses have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game against the Browns defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
Christian McCaffrey's 29.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 35.1.