Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-155/+118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Christian McCaffrey has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this season (64.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (47.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to total 7.4 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Christian McCaffrey's skills in generating extra yardage have been refined this year, notching 8.06 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 6.32 figure last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 10th-least pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 57.1 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Christian McCaffrey has notched far fewer air yards this year (-2.0 per game) than he did last year (11.0 per game).

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