Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-139/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 43.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Christian McCaffrey's skills in picking up extra yardage have improved this season, compiling 7.70 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 6.32 rate last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered the most receiving yards per game in the league (55.0) vs. running backs this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 7th-least pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be a less important option in his team's pass attack this week (7.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (25.5% in games he has played).
Christian McCaffrey has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (-1.0 per game) than he did last year (11.0 per game).

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