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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 7

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-139/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ +105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 43.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.
  • The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
  • Christian McCaffrey's skills in picking up extra yardage have improved this season, compiling 7.70 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 6.32 rate last season.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered the most receiving yards per game in the league (55.0) vs. running backs this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 7th-least pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
  • The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
  • THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be a less important option in his team's pass attack this week (7.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (25.5% in games he has played).
  • Christian McCaffrey has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (-1.0 per game) than he did last year (11.0 per game).

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