Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Christian McCaffrey has run more routes this year (70.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (47.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to notch 5.3 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
Christian McCaffrey has totaled a monstrous 7.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Christian McCaffrey's skills in generating extra yardage have gotten better this year, compiling 10.21 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 6.32 mark last year.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
Christian McCaffrey has totaled substantially fewer receiving yards per game (25.0) this year than he did last year (47.0).
Christian McCaffrey's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 92.9% to 85.1%.

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