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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 11

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers

Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+237/-379).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +297 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +237.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 7th-most in football.

Christian McCaffrey has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 21.2% this year, which places him in the 97th percentile among running backs.

Christian McCaffrey's 34.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 100th percentile for running backs.

The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers are an enormous 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The San Francisco 49ers have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.

Christian McCaffrey has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (1.0 per game) than he did last season (11.0 per game).

Christian McCaffrey's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 92.9% to 82.2%.

More Christian McCaffrey Player Props

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