Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · Carolina Panthers

Receiving TD

Carolina Panthers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+259/-436).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +260 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +259.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 25.65 seconds per play.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be much more involved in his offense's pass game near the end zone this week (21.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (13.6% in games he has played).
Christian McCaffrey has accumulated a monstrous 11.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey's 32.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 100th percentile for RBs.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Cleveland Browns linebackers project as the best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Cleveland Browns defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Carolina Panthers have incorporated play action on a lowly 23.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.